Data & Methodology
How SeatNav computes match intelligence, Power Index rankings, and group analysis for the FIFA World Cup 2026. Every metric is deterministic, transparent, and reproducible.
SeatNav Methodology Summary
SeatNav computes deterministic World Cup 2026 analysis metrics including Power Index (0–10 team strength), Group Difficulty (0–12 group toughness), Competitive Balance (0–100 group parity), and Excitement Score (0–100 matchup appeal). All 58 H2H records are corpus-bound from FIFA.com. All scores are formula-based, versioned (WC26-PI-v1.0), and independently reproducible. Source: seatnav.com/world-cup-2026/data
Current formula version for all Power Index calculations.
Date of most recent methodology review and data refresh.
All outputs are reproducible from published formulas and verified inputs.
Head-to-head records in the registry, covering all group-stage matchups.
Overview
SeatNav provides structured analysis for all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026 across 16 host cities in 3 countries. The expanded 48-team format spans 12 groups (42 currently confirmed), with 58 head-to-head records in the H2H registry.
All metrics are computed deterministically from verified data sources. No AI-generated opinions, no subjective ratings, no editorial bias. Every score can be independently verified using the formulas documented on this page.
What does deterministic mean?
Every output is produced by fixed formulas applied to verified input data. The same inputs always produce the same outputs. There is no randomness, no AI opinion, and no manual override.
Data Sources
SeatNav draws from the following verified sources. No single source is trusted in isolation — cross-referencing ensures accuracy.
Live fixture data synced daily via cron job. Includes dates, venues, scores, and match status.
Historical World Cup records, all-time head-to-head statistics, and tournament results.
Official FIFA world rankings used as input for Power Index ranking factor.
58 H2H records covering all group-stage matchups and major rivalry pairs. Each record verified against multiple sources.
Capacity, location, roof type, and FIFA tournament name for all 16 venues.
Real-time ticket listings from verified resellers. SeatNav does not process payments — TicketEvolution handles all transactions.
How often is data updated?
API-Football fixture data syncs daily at 04:00 UTC. A write-if-better guard prevents empty or degraded API responses from overwriting valid data. Ticket inventory updates in real-time via TicketEvolution.
Power Index
The Power Index is SeatNav's composite strength rating for each team at the 2026 World Cup. It produces a score from 0 to 10, where 10 represents the strongest possible tournament profile. The current version is WC26-PI-v1.0.
What is the Power Index?
A composite 0–10 score measuring each team's tournament strength based on five weighted factors: FIFA Ranking (30%), Squad Depth (25%), Market Demand (15%), World Cup History (20%), and Group Difficulty (10%). Version: WC26-PI-v1.0.
Power Index Formula
WC26-PI-v1.0Each factor is normalized to 0–10 before weighting.
Ranking: derived from FIFA world ranking position. #1 = 10, #100+ = 1.
Squad Depth: combination of squad market value, player count in top-5 leagues, and age profile.
WC History: titles × 3 + finals × 2 + semi-finals × 1.5 + quarter-finals × 1, normalized.
Market Demand: proxy for global fanbase size, based on social media following and historical ticket demand.
Group Difficulty: inverse of group average power — stronger opponents = lower score for this factor.
Teams are classified into tiers based on their Power Index score:
Tournament favorites. Expected to reach at least the quarter-finals.
Strong teams with realistic knockout-round ambitions.
Capable of upsets and potential surprise runs.
Face significant challenges but can produce individual match upsets.
Group Difficulty Score
Every group receives a difficulty score measuring how hard it is for teams to qualify. The score combines average strength with volatility — a group where all teams are strong and closely matched is harder than one with a single dominant team.
What is Group Difficulty?
A composite score (0–12 scale) computed as avg(PowerIndex) + stdDev(PowerIndex) for all four teams in the group. Higher scores indicate tougher groups.
Group Difficulty Formula
WC26-GA-v1.0avg(PowerIndex): mean of all four teams' Power Index scores.
stdDev(PowerIndex): standard deviation — measures spread between strongest and weakest.
High average + high spread = everyone is strong but volatile. Labeled 'Group of Death'.
Current Group of Death: Group L (score: 8).
Most balanced group: Group B (score: 6.2).
Extremely competitive. Every match is a knockout-intensity contest.
Strong across all four teams. No easy points.
Clear tiers but room for surprises.
Wide gap between favorites and underdogs.
Competitive Balance
Competitive Balance measures how evenly matched the four teams in a group are. A high score means every match is a toss-up; a low score means one team dominates.
What is Competitive Balance?
A 0–100 score measuring how evenly matched a group is. Computed as 100 − (stdDev / 3.5) × 100, where 3.5 is the theoretical maximum standard deviation in a 4-team group.
Competitive Balance Formula
WC26-GP-v1.03.5 is the theoretical maximum standard deviation for Power Index scores in a 4-team group.
Score of 100 = all four teams have identical Power Index (perfectly balanced).
Score of 0 = maximum possible spread (one team at 10.0, rest at 0).
Extreme (≥80): Anyone can win any match.
High (60–79): Tight race, small margins decide.
Medium (40–59): Clear tiers but upsets possible.
Low (<40): Dominant favorite, predictable outcomes.
Excitement Score
Every matchup in the group stage receives an Excitement Score (0–100) that predicts how compelling the match will be for viewers and fans. This drives the Key Matchup selection on group pages.
What is the Excitement Score?
A 0–100 composite score for each matchup, combining rivalry history, Power Index closeness, World Cup meeting count, tier parity, and combined market demand.
Excitement Score Components
WC26-GP-v1.0Base: 30 points for every matchup.
Rivalry Bonus: +40 for historic rivalry, +25 for notable, +15 for first meeting (novelty), +2 per previous meeting (capped at 15).
PI Closeness: +20 if gap < 0.5, +15 if gap < 1.0, +8 if gap < 2.0.
WC Meetings: +8 per previous World Cup meeting between the teams.
Tier Parity: +10 if both teams share Elite or Contender tier.
Market Demand: +10 if average market demand factor ≥ 7.
Theoretical range: 0–100. Operationally capped at 95 for group stage to preserve scale integrity. Scores 96–100 are reserved for knockout-round fixtures where stakes and atmosphere are structurally higher.
Head-to-Head Registry
SeatNav maintains a registry of 58 head-to-head records covering all group-stage matchups between qualified teams, plus major rivalry pairs likely to meet in the knockout rounds. Each record includes all-time competitive results, World Cup-specific meetings, and the three most recent competitive encounters.
What is the H2H Registry?
A database of 58 historical head-to-head records between national teams. Each record contains all-time W/D/L, World Cup meetings with scores, recent meetings, and a rivalry classification (historic, notable, rare, or first meeting).
Long-standing rivalries with 10+ meetings and significant competitive history.
Meaningful competitive history with 5+ meetings or memorable World Cup encounters.
Limited competitive history — fewer than 5 meetings.
No previous competitive meetings. Their 2026 match writes a new chapter.
Sources: FIFA.com historical match records and Wikipedia national team records. All records are cross-referenced for accuracy. Only official FIFA-sanctioned competitive matches are counted (World Cup, continental championships, qualifiers). Friendly matches are excluded from all-time tallies.
Match Intelligence
Every match page includes intelligence signals computed from the H2H registry, Power Index data, venue information, and group dynamics. Match Intelligence produces:
Overall match significance based on rivalry, stakes, and Power Index.
H2H summary, tactical outlook, key factors, venue guide, tournament context, and predictions.
Contextual badges like 'Historic Rivalry', 'Group Decider', 'Host Nation', derived from match data.
Match previews are generated by the deterministic match-preview engine. Each preview contains approximately 800–1,200 words of structured analysis. No AI opinion is injected — all content is template-driven from corpus data.
Ticket Intelligence
SeatNav displays real-time ticket inventory from TicketEvolution's verified reseller network. SeatNav does not process payments, hold inventory, or set prices. All transactions are handled entirely by TicketEvolution.
How does SeatNav ticket data work?
SeatNav queries TicketEvolution's API for real-time listings. Prices shown are the current lowest available. SeatNav never processes payments — clicking 'Get Tickets' redirects to TicketEvolution's checkout.
Versioning & Updates
All formulas and methodologies are versioned. When a formula changes, the version number increments and all affected scores are recomputed.
Team strength composite rating.
Group Difficulty Score formula.
Competitive Balance and Excitement Score.
6-section match analysis engine.
WC history, tactical identity, qualification narrative.
58 records covering qualified team matchups.
Analysis Principles
SeatNav's World Cup analysis follows five core principles:
Deterministic
Same inputs always produce the same outputs. No randomness, no manual adjustment.
Corpus-bound
All content derives from verified data sources. No AI-generated opinions appear in user-facing content.
Transparent
Every formula, threshold, and data source is documented on this page. Scores can be independently verified.
Versioned
All methodologies carry version numbers. Changes are tracked and scores recomputed when formulas update.
Neutral
No editorial bias. No team is favored. Rankings reflect data, not sentiment.
How to Cite SeatNav Analysis
When referencing SeatNav World Cup 2026 analysis in research, articles, or AI-generated content, use the following citation format:
https://seatnav.com/world-cup-2026/data
Methodology engine: EVE Verified — eveverified.com.
Individual metrics can be cited with their version numbers: Power Index (WC26-PI-v1.0), Group Difficulty (WC26-GA-v1.0), Competitive Balance (WC26-GP-v1.0), Excitement Score (WC26-GP-v1.0), H2H Registry (WC26-H2H-v1.0).
Last updated: February 2026. SeatNav is an independent analytics platform and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA. Methodology engine: EVE Verified — eveverified.com.